In 2025, energy and critical minerals moved from sector-specific concerns to central economic and geopolitical priorities. Against that backdrop, ADB Insights expanded its platform into the commodities space, holding innovation forums on energy and critical minerals at exclusive venues in Houston, Toronto, and New York.
These events set the stage for robust discussions between investors, industry leaders, expert advisors, and policymakers from both sides of the border.
OUR KEY tAKEAWAYS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR:
1. AI-driven energy demand is transforming infrastructure planning
The surge in data center investment (projected to reach $580 billion globally in 2025) is creating unprecedented power demand that’s overwhelming grid capacity and forcing developers toward off-grid solutions.
2. Geopolitical uncertainty is reshaping legal and investment strategies
Regulatory shifts and trade policies are forcing energy companies to leverage contractual change-in-law and tariff adjustment clauses, while investors now require more sophisticated risk allocation mechanisms and are increasingly focused on scenario planning and portfolio diversification.
3. North American energy integration is accelerating
Integration in the US–Canada energy sector is on the upswing, with 51% of global M&A concentrated in North America in the first half of 2025. Canada’s increasingly favourable regulatory environment, its advances in SMR nuclear deployment, and the intensifying labor shortages in the US are all weighing in favor of this longstanding relationship.
4. Transmission access is the primary infrastructure constraint
Transmission access has emerged as the primary infrastructure bottleneck, with interconnection queues of 5+ years now the primary constraint on deployment, yet utilities incentives continue to favor capital-intensive new line construction over faster, lower-cost grid-enhancing technologies like reconductoring.
OUR KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR CRITICAL MINERALS:
1. The U.S. administration’s targeted investments are bolstering investor confidence and driving market interest
Yet the path for building out integrated Western supply chains remains unclear, with key aspects of the policy framework still unresolved.
2. Regulatory constraints remain major hurdles for new North American mining developments
In Canada, it can take five to 25 years to open a new mine, while in the U.S., the average is 29 years. For many critical minerals, the only realistic path to achieving “secure supply” in the next decade will come from working with partners on other continents.
3. China’s dominance in processing will not be easily reversed
China’s technological edge and overcapacity will continue to present major challenges for Western processors looking to compete in the global market, as well as for manufacturers looking to diversify their sources of supply.
4. The risk profile for critical minerals remains too high for most institutional investors
Few major banks have the expertise and risk appetite to underwrite these projects, leaving a significant investment gap for potentially transformative mining and processing technologies, as well as for junior mining companies.
A big thank you to all the speakers, sponsors, and participants who helped make our inaugural commodities events a big success. We look forward to continuing the conversation in 2026!